To be successful playing heads-up poker, like poker in general, you must have a basic understanding of the odds and percentages associated with the hand you hold, the money in the pot, and the community cards. Your expected value (often abbreviated "EV") represents how many chips you stand to win or lose from a particular play. Of course, the EV is simply an average, not a guarantee, but over the long run you can make a significant profit by playing that average.
The way the EV is calculated mathematically is by considering all possible outcomes from any decision and weighing them against the probability of each outcome actually occuring. Unfortunately, hold'em poker is a complicated game that can make those calculations difficult, but there are ways of streamlining the process.
For purposes of understanding the concept, consider the EV of flipping a coin. Suppose your friend offers you a bet where if the coin lands tails he'll pay you $10, and if it lands heads you'll pay him $5. What is the EV?
In this very simple example, each outcome happens 1/2 the time. So with the bet offered, 1/2 the time you win $10 and 1/2 the time you lose $5. Adding -$5 to $10 results in an EV of $5. TAKE THAT BET.
Doing the calculations on the fly in a poker hand are, of course, much more difficult, but consideration of expected value is something a good heads-up poker player does on the fly. I'll discuss some specific situations in future posts.
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